An open letter to president Trump

Spanish version

Once upon a time, Mr. President, Venezuela was the most prosperous, stable and dynamic country in Latin America and as such attracted migrants and investments from all over the world. A young and vibrant two-party democracy alternated in power in free elections, supported by relatively strong institutions, rule of law, and a professional bureaucracy. And we had all this in a region mired by brutal dictatorships, armed conflict and economic instability. To borrow one of your lines, “we had the cards”.

In the 1970s, however, it all began to unravel à la Hemingway: “In two ways. Gradually, then suddenly”. The gradual phase took place over the following three decades or so, driven by a stubborn adherence to a state-led and highly controlled economic model that encouraged rent-seeking behavior and widespread corruption. Not surprisingly, it led to economic decay, growing poverty, and if I may add, to the decision of a predominantly white elite to withdraw from public life to protect its shrinking bubble amidst a largely overlooked–and also frowned upon and ridiculed– mestizo majority.

As you can imagine, Mr. President, these dynamics paved the way for Hugo Chavez’s rise to power and for his Machiavellian mix of authoritarian populism and resentment-based politics. A mix of manipulation and deceit, a self-defeating and delegitimized opposition, and outrageously good luck allowed him to blitzkrieg through all checks and balances to his rule: congress, the courts, the military, the electoral body, the state oil company, the central bank, the media, and the country as a whole. The opposition learned from its mistakes and kept trying. We voted, protested, boycotted, negotiated, documented human rights abuses and other crimes, won a presidential election in a spectacular fashion in 2024, and even the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2025. But aside from delegitimizing the regime and revealing its true colors, we couldn’t collect. We simply didn’t have the cards.

We were just about to lose all hope when the proverbial Deux ex machina appeared. In a spectacular military operation in the middle of the night, you extracted the tyrant and his wife and took them to stand trial in a US court. All of a sudden, we–I mean you, Mr. President–have the cards: a credible threat to those who remained in power in Venezuela. A transition to democracy was clearly in sight, or so it seemed, for almost a month has gone by and what we see and hear is dampening our hopes.

The leverage you gained with the extraction opened a window of opportunity. Professional boxers–and politicians– tend to learn the hard way that opportunities like these should not be squandered. They close, sometimes for a long time and other times for good. If I were in your corner, I’d be yelling and banging on the canvas. Don’t give them a chance to recover, Mr. President, go for the knockout.

All previous negotiation attempts failed because we didn’t have a credible threat. Now you do. Use that threat to call for closed door negotiations on your terms. The regime does not have the cards to disqualify Maria Corina Machado as a legitimate party representing the people of Venezuela. You call the shots, and you have significant leverage over María Corina and over the rest of the opposition. You could use that leverage to nudge her into convincing oil companies, for example, that the contractual and legislative changes you are engineering with the regime will be respected and improved under democratic rule. The opportunity is yours for the taking, but hurry up: the clock is ticking.